01
Probabilistic Modeling
概率建模
识别复杂系统中的失效、退化与传播机制，从相关性走向可解释的因果结构。
可靠性工程 · 博士研究生
郑一选Zheng Yi-Xuan(Onepick)
Ph.D. Student University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC)
我研究复杂系统如何在不确定性中失效、退化与传播，关注概率建模、决策优化，以及 AI 基础设施和航天装备体系的可靠性与韧性。
期待交流与指导，也期待新的问题与合作。
“onepick for my only one life
believe in the power of time and patience
01 / RESEARCH
研究问题的线索
我的工作试图理解相互依赖的系统：如何识别因果结构与概率耦合、挖掘可用监测信息的价值，指导 AI 基础设施和航天装备体系的可靠性与韧性的提升。
02
Decision Optimization
决策优化
面向信息不完整与多源观测，挖掘信息价值，支持复杂系统的可信决策。
03
Engineering Applications
工程应用
研究AI 基础设施和航天装备体系的设备退化、依赖关系与风险传播，量化可靠性/韧性。
02 / PUBLICATIONS
论文与合作
JOURNAL ARTICLES03 第一作者/09 总量
- 01
Reliability assessment of systems with mixed degradation components: An adaptive hybrid Bayesian network framework
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 75, 2721–2735
- 02
Reliability assessment of reconfigurable k-out-of-n systems with functional dependency
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 74(3), 3745–3759
- 03
Structure function learning of hierarchical multi-state systems with incomplete observation sequences
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 216, 107902
- 04
Evidence theory-based seismic vulnerability assessment of ultra-high voltage converter transformers under hybrid uncertainty
Acta Mechanica Sinica, 42(8), 725816
- 05
Maintenance importance measures incorporating tripartite component dependence
IISE Transactions, 1–19
- 06
Sequential inspection policy optimization for hierarchical multistate systems
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 262, 111185
- 07
Dynamic reliability assessment of hierarchical multistate systems with sensors’ degradation
IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 74(3), 3784–3798
- 08
Reliability modeling of modular k-out-of-n systems with functional dependency: A case study of radar transmitter systems
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 233, 109120
- 09
Optimal loading strategy for multi-state systems: Cumulative performance perspective
Applied Mathematical Modelling, 74, 199–216
CONFERENCE RECORDS05
- 01
Reliability bounding and updating for multi-state systems via dynamic credal networks under imperfect observation
The 12th Asia-Pacific International Symposium on Advanced Reliability and Maintenance Modeling · Singapore
- 02
Utility-based optimization of self-diagnosis and mission abort policies for phase-dependent systems
2025 IEEE Global Reliability and Prognostics and Health Management Conference (PHM-Xi’an) · Xi’an, China
- 03
Reliability assessment of k-out-of-n systems with functional dependency: a case study of kerosene filling systems
The 15th Global Reliability & Prognostics and Health Management Conference · Beijing, China
- 04
Reliability modeling of modular k-out-of-n systems with functional dependence
The 27th ISSAT International Conference on Reliability & Quality in Design · Miami, Florida, USA (Virtual)
- 05
Reliability structure function learning with incomplete data for multi-state systems
2020 International Conference on Quality, Reliability, Risk, Maintenance, and Safety Engineering · Xi’an, China
CO-AUTHOR NETWORK合作不是名单，
合作不是名单，
而是共同的努力。
根据已发表期刊论文生成。
03 / CV
学习与工作经历
EDUCATION & EXPERIENCE
Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering
UESTC · School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering · Supervisor: Prof. Yu Liu
Visiting Ph.D. Student (Joint Training)
National University of Singapore (NUS) · Supervisor: Prof. Zhisheng Ye · Funded by the China Scholarship Council (CSC)
Quality & Reliability Engineer
Quality Department · Nanjing Research Institute of Electronic Technology
M.Sc. in Mechanical Engineering
UESTC · School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering · Supervisor: Prof. Yu Liu · Recommended admission (exempt from the national graduate entrance examination)
Visiting Student
Lady Margaret Hall, University of Oxford · Leadership Development in Arts and Sciences · Fully funded by UESTC
B.Sc. in Industrial Engineering
UESTC · Admitted through the National College Entrance Examination (Gaokao) as a candidate from Henan Province
BEYOND THE TIMELINE不完美，
不完美，
也是我。
成果之外，我也想诚实地保留那些没有完成、没有走直，或后来重新选择的部分。它们同样塑造了今天的我。
高考作文没有采用书信格式
2015 年高考第一天，我忽略了题目要求的书信格式，错写成了议论文。担心因此失去太多分数，我整夜未眠，甚至想过放弃第二天的考试。父母劝我先把剩余科目考完；后来作文并没有被大幅扣分。这件事让我明白：事情一旦结束，就不要再反复担忧，而应把注意力放在下一步仍能做好的事上。
离开职场，gap后回到学校
硕士毕业后，我离开学校，在南京做了一年质量与可靠性工程师。随后主动辞职，又经历了一年的 gap，重新理解工程、选择与生活，之后回到学校读博——这不是最短的路径，却让我更清楚自己为什么研究。
04 / READING
阅读
阅读是另一种缓慢积累：被理解的句子、被改变的判断，以及它们在时间里留下的痕迹。数据由微信读书自动更新。
DATA VIA WECHAT READING正在读取阅读记录
微信读书累计记录
自然年度累计
单日阅读满 1 分钟
ON THE SHELF
近期在读
仅展示公开书架中的在读书籍
05 / SPORTS
运动
骑行、跑步和游泳，是研究之外另一种与时间相处的方式。数据由 Strava 自动更新。
DATA VIA STRAVA · 自 2024 年 9 月起
ALL-TIME TOTALS
骑行、跑步与游泳的累计数据总记录
CYCLING
… km骑行 · 数据尚未同步
RUNNING
… km跑步 · 数据尚未同步
SWIMMING
… km游泳 · 数据尚未同步
YEAR TO DATE
数据尚未同步2026 年度记录
CYCLING本年度
RUNNING本年度
SWIMMING本年度
BEST EFFORTS
按单次最长距离计算各类活动最佳记录
CYCLING骑行
RUNNING跑步
SWIMMING游泳
RIDE PROFILE
骑行高度与距离
- 最长骑行
- … km
- 单次最大爬升
- … m
- 爬升 · 本年度
- … m
- 爬升 · 总记录
- … m
最近一次运动正在读取运动数据
破纪录时刻正在读取运动数据
A NOTE BEYOND THE CV
人的本质并不是经历，而是那个只有自己知道、无法被触碰的、结晶般的内在生命。一选